INDIANA – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  The Indiana primary is tomorrow.   The sense I get from polls and reporting is that the stars are not aligning for Ted Cruz.  Cruz seems to be weakening at the time he needs strength the most.

Part of the problem is the sheer momentum built up by Donald Trump, especially with recent primary victories in the northeast.  Momentum creates a vision of inevitability, a sense that the people's will has been expressed.  There may be more emotion in this than rationality, but emotion is a critical part of politics.  I recall how Kennedy built a vision of inevitability in 1960, even though support for him in the Democratic Party was remarkably thin.

I've also noticed more press to the effect that Trump can recover from some of his awful poll numbers among certain groups.  Currently he has a 70% disapproval among women.  It's been pointed out, though, that Hillary's poll numbers, and approval ratings, are nothing to write home about.  If Trump can start pushing down his disapproval ratings, he might suddenly find himself more competitive with Hillary.  Indeed, some polls actually show them almost neck-and-neck already in general-election matchups.  Do not underestimate Trump.  He's tapped into something real in the electorate, and, rightly or wrongly, millions of voters are drawn to him.

There have also been a surprising number of references in the last three days to Hillary's FBI problems.  I don't know why this is happening.  Maybe her "inevitability" is forcing journalists to look at the one thing that can un-inevitable her.  And yet, I've seen no substantive reporting on the probe that is actually new. 

The election is still six months away, ten lifetimes in politics.

May 2, 2016